Container rates jump to a 22-month high as importers race the tariff clock

The cost of moving a container across the Pacific just hit its highest level in nearly two years. Drewry's World Container Index rose 5% in the week to June 25 to $4,166 per 40ft container, the composite's highest reading since September 2024. The transpacific lanes that carry most US-bound furniture did the pulling: Shanghai to Los Angeles jumped 12% in a single week to $5,750 per 40ft box, and Shanghai to New York rose 6% to $7,149, the highest rate of the eight routes Drewry tracks.

How June repriced the trade

The surge arrived fast. In late May, transpacific spot rates were averaging around $3,200 per FEU to the West Coast and $5,000 to the East Coast, according to Freightos' weekly market update. Then carriers' June 1 general rate increases and peak-season surcharges took hold, and Freightos reported daily rates spiking $1,000 to $1,800 per FEU in the first week of the month, with additional increases announced for mid-June. Contracted shippers were not insulated: Freightos noted reports of allocations being cut and premiums applied even to shippers with negotiated rates.

Peak season simply started early. Ocean demand that would normally build toward an August-September peak began compressing into May and June, and Freightos observed that Asia-Europe rates had already surpassed their peak-season highs from the prior June and July, a sign of how much demand moved forward on the east-west trades at once.

The tariff clock behind the front-loading

Drewry attributes the transpacific strength to importers front-loading shipments ahead of tariff changes, and the calendar explains the urgency. The Section 122 tariff that currently applies a flat 10% to most imports expires on July 24, and the administration has proposed replacing it with new Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% covering roughly 60 trading partners, furniture-relevant sourcing countries like Vietnam, Thailand and India among them, according to a client alert from law firm Dorsey. Dorsey notes importers may see a window of opportunity to bring products in before rates increase, and June's booking surge is what that window looks like in practice: every container that clears US customs before the switch is priced under the regime importers already know.

The squeeze has a supply side too. Congestion at major Asian and European hubs is limiting effective vessel availability, per Drewry, so the demand pull is landing on constrained capacity. One risk factor did ease during the month: the stabilizing US-Iran ceasefire reduced the threat of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz that had loomed over routing and insurance earlier in June.

What July looks like

Carriers are not treating June as the top. Further general rate increases and peak-season surcharges are filed for July, and Drewry expects shippers to face continued space constraints and short-term pricing volatility. Whether rates hold depends on how much of the front-loaded volume was Q3 demand pulled forward: if the July tariff switch lands and bookings deflate, spot rates could give back ground quickly; if the new duties keep import math unsettled, the scramble continues. Either way, the inbound container leg is repricing at the same moment domestic big-and-bulky freight is climbing, with LTL rates already heading for record highs this quarter.

Why it matters: For imported furniture, the container is the first line of landed cost, and a $1,000-to-$2,500 swing per 40ft box is real money spread across the units inside it. A brand that booked West Coast capacity in late May paid around $3,200; the same box cost $5,750 by late June. That spread flows straight into landed cost, and from there into the pricing, margin and promo decisions every marketplace seller makes for the second half.

What it means for our partners: Landed-cost assumptions set in the spring are stale; we refresh them against current spot rates when planning second-half pricing and replenishment, and we watch the July tariff transition closely, because it will decide whether this spike unwinds or hardens into the new baseline.